The House of Representatives ended their legislative session a bit early and decided to start the August recess a week in advance. The Senate will stay for one more week before leaving for the August recess. Obviously, this means there will not be bills moving on the House and Senate floors until after Labor Day, but it certainly does not mean nothing important will be happening. Here are five things to watch over August that will inform what happens in DC for the rest of the year:
The Makeup of the Presidential Election: Given the uncertainty around the election and the need for Democrats to finalize their nominee at the upcoming convention in Chicago, Democrats and Republicans are closely watching what the top of the ticket on the Democratic side means for them. It will help both Republicans and Democrats, for example, solidify their messaging for the Fall. This will also inform the legislative agenda for the Fall as both sides of the political aisle will leverage policy debates to elevate their candidate and highlight areas of political risk for their opponent. All of this will become clearer over August and we should expect notable changes when Congress returns.
Voter and Constituent Feedback: Many House and Senate members will spend much of August aggressively connecting to voters. This time period is often when they get feedback (at scale) on relevant policies that Congress is considering and, in turn, it often leads policymakers to reprioritize what they want or do not want to happen when they return in DC. It is very likely the Republican and Democratic leadership get new demands from their members on specific policies based on constituent input after the August recess, which can spur leadership to adjust their legislative agenda, messaging, or both.
Staff Negotiations: While policymakers may be out of town for the month, staff will remain in place working on legislative issues for the remainder of the year. This will include bipartisan conversations to help iron out differences on key bills so make the process easier when policymakers return in September. These staff level discussions are critical to defining what will be prioritized in September as well as the lame-duck session after the election.
The Direction of Big Issues Important to Congress: Policymakers will be closely monitoring many issues beyond the campaign, including the military efforts in Ukraine and Israel, investigations around the assassination attempt on former President Trump, and the southern border (among others). Any shifts in these issues will likely impact what Congress will focus on when they return to DC.
The Unknown: The last couple of months have been full of surprises and, given the election season, more surprises are likely. Issues may emerge that dramatically change the Fall agenda. While we cannot plan for these, identifying these issues early will be important insight for what we can expect in the months ahead in DC.
Many outsiders think of August recess as a vacation for Congress (and for some, it might be). For most, this is actually a busy and stressful time of campaigning and planning for the Fall. The month – more than most – will inform the upcoming agenda and the election.
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