When Congress punted on FY 25 spending in December, it was clear that it would become an immediate burden on the new 119th Congress….and it has. Congress will now need to pass a package of bills or a continuing resolution before March 14th to avoid a government shutdown. Appropriators and rank-and-file members are scrambling to figure out what is possible in what has become a complicated political landscape, especially for funding. Here are the factors that are complicating this funding debate.
White House War on Spending: The White House’s current mission to shrink the size of the federal government and reform it through layoffs and funding cuts is not exactly in alignment with what a bipartisan appropriations package would likely produce. It’s hard to see what the White House and congressional Democrats would agree to given the current landscape.
Flirting with a Shutdown: There is probably an unexpected bipartisan group of policymakers that have an interest in a shutdown (for very different reasons). Some conservatives have previously voiced some support for a shutdown to avoid more spending and some Democrats have recently said that a shutdown would help slow or stop some of the President’s current DOGE initiatives. Even President Trump embraced a shutdown during his first term. All that said, a majority of policymakers do not want a shutdown and will do all they can to avoid it.
Appropriators Seeking a Deal: House and Senate Appropriators are having conversations about FY 2025 spending and many of them would prefer to get a bill done now (since they are already very late in getting FY 25 spending done). Furthermore, spending bills carry riders and policies that are big priorities for some members who are unlikely to move elsewhere. If it were up to the appropriators, a big agreement would be made. With all the other factors, they are not in the driving seat at the moment.
Other Bright Shiny Objects: There is only so much political capital Republican leadership has to leverage and there are much higher profile issues to tackle. Budget reconciliation, for example, will take a lot of effort to get over the finish line; navigating a big internal Republican debate on spending (potentially with the White House as well) will be a headache for Republican leadership that could impact future debates that will require Republican support.
Long-Term CR Less Offensive This Year: Given the funding pressures that come with a Trump White House and a Republican Congress, level funding may be a good result for those closely watching federal funding. Nobody believes this would be a year for large funding increases so a year-long continuing resolution may be a win.
This funding debate will have some unexpected turns, but a year-long CR is probably at the top of the list in terms of what is most likely to happen. A modest deal is not out of the realm of possibility, nor is a shutdown.
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