We have less than two weeks until the deadline to fund the government (September 30th) and the Speaker of the House is working on a solution that will satisfy the conservatives in his party, while also bringing enough Democrats that it will pass the House and Senate…potentially an impossible. There are a range of possibilities here (some more likely than others). A brief breakdown is below:
Government Shutdown: This is not likely at all; nobody wins when the government shuts down especially days prior to major and consequential election. The House and Senate have found the path to an extension in seemingly lower-risk times and they are likely to do the same again.
Continuing Resolution + Policy Priority: There is always an interest in leveraging the funding cliff, but this did not work most recently with adding a Republican election security bill. There is no great track record of one party getting their own priority attached to the bill without negotiating priorities with the other party. This may have been a good test balloon, but a partisan continuing resolution does not have a real chance.
Omnibus Spending Bill Before the Election: Ideally, Congress would be ready to get the bills over the finish line. There is not enough time, desire, or bipartisan negotiation at this point to get this done in the next two weeks. Giving some additional time after the election, this could be work (as it has many times before), but right now the only path is a CR.
Continuing Resolution Through the Election: Not that common sense always guides federal policy, but punting the funding debate until after the election makes the most sense. It allows for the Appropriations Committees in the House and Senate to try an finalize legislation this year and if they fail to do so (in full or in part), they can pass another extension until next year.
Continuing Resolution into Next Year: This could be a good approach if this year does not get the job done, but pushing a funding debate into next year comes with enormous risk and maybe even bigger headaches. Given potential new congressional leadership, committee chairs, administration, and rank-and-file policymakers, starting the new Congress with a funding cliff can be very problematic. Committee chairs and committee members are not always decided for a couple of months and policymakers may not even have their full staff on board yet. Furthermore, the Administration will be hoping to get nominees confirmed and beginning to advance their “first 100 days” strategy. With a looming funding deadline, everything else will need to be de-prioritized.
Once this continuing resolution debate is finalized, everyone will have the opportunity to take a short break before needing to figure out how they will pass the actual funding bills…which comes with its own level of complexity. Until then, let’s hope a funding extension is finalized quickly.
Comments