The only thing more unpredictable than politics may be the politics behind the politics. For a good portion of the 118th Congress, the focus has been on dysfunction among Republicans and the internal (and mostly successful) efforts to upend the Speakership. Now after one presidential debate, Republicans are fully on offense and Democrats are in crisis mode and internally discussing the potential of finding a new candidate for the top of the ticket - with the conventions just around the corner and just over four months until Election Day.
There are effectively five power players driving the narrative around President Biden’s current crisis - Democratic voters (reflected in polls), the press, the Democratic political elite (leaders of Democratic state parties and the national party), large Democratic donors, and senior elected policymakers in the House of Representatives and Senate. Together, these disparate groups will be the machine that either applies pressure to find a new candidate or rallies behind the President to keep moving forward.
While this current scenario around President Biden is fairly unique (as was the removal of a sitting Speaker of the House), it reflects how rapidly political change can occur and also how sensitive the political system is to disruption - one vote was enough cause for removing a Speaker and one debate was enough cause for potentially removing a presidential candidate.
It is, if nothing else, an important reminder of how the politics of politics is a powerful force that can drive rapid change. With the 2024 election on the horizon, there is still a lot of time for more unexpected political turmoil.