As expected, one of the more important policy spaces to watch in the coming months is trade policy. One of President Trump's core policy wins in his first term was the implementation of Section 301 tariffs (which have not only remained in place, but became even more stringent under the Biden Administration in some areas). The President talked about more tariffs regularly on the campaign trail, has done so since taking the oath of office, and certainly gave a nod to additional tariffs in his recent announcement on trade. At this point, the question is not if there will be tariffs, but what will the policies actually say and what else is on the table.
The President has highlighted his interest in creating new tariffs on Canada (25%), Mexico (25%), and China (10%). While timelines vary, he has said there will at least be announcements as early as February 1st. This is not likely the only time he will leverage tariffs as he has highlighted several other countries that may be facing tariffs in the future. Not all of Congress agrees with the use of tariffs (especially over the long-term), but the President has the power to initiate these on his own without Congress' input.
He also called for a review of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China. Rep. Moolenaar (R-MI) and Sen. Cotton (R-OK) have just introduced legislation to revoke PNTR with China.
President Trump has renewed his call to renegotiate the U.S. - Mexico - Canada Agreement, which was previously negotiated in his first term. Given that Mexico and Canada are top U.S. trading partners (and they are likely to face new tariffs), this will be an important process to watch.
There will also be further study into areas where the U.S. is being undermined from a trade perspective. One of those is finding an opportunity to reform the de minimis threshold, which has strong bipartisan support across Congress.
So, as this first week of the Trump Administration comes to a close, the most obvious takeaway may be that trade will be an active policy space (if not the most active) and will be closely aligned with the President's broader economic policies.
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