Today marks the start of the 119th Congress, which welcomes 66 new members of the House of Representatives and 12 new members of the Senate. Both sides of the Capitol are holding onto very narrow Republican majorities; guaranteeing a difficult (albeit bipartisan) path ahead for most legislative efforts. As the new Congress kicks off, here are a few important factors to watch:
Big Agenda Ahead: Congressional leaders always like to start the year with a clean agenda, which they can build on their own through both a political and policy lens. This is not the case in the 119th Congress. Policymakers enter the new Congress with a built-in agenda (some of which carries over from last year), including Fiscal Year 2025 funding (currently extended through March), the Farm Bill (extended for one year), and the debt limit increase (needing to be increased early this year). Additionally, Congress will need to start writing the Surface Transportation Bill and the annual National Defense Authorization. This is in addition to major policy initiatives they hope to tackle, including a large tax package, confirming nominations, and other policy priorities.
A Difficult Policy Dance: With few exceptions (budget reconciliation, Congressional Review Act resolutions, etc.), legislation will not reach the President’s desk without Democratic support. At times, it will be tough to secure Democratic votes as they seek to leverage their votes for meaningful policy change Democrats support (not just small episodic wins). This will challenge both sides of the political aisle and may slow down the legislative process, despite Republicans having control of the House and Senate.
Internal Party Politics will Emerge: The internal political game will happen and it will become a headache for leadership. We have seen this already on both sides of the aisle - Democrats pushing out longtime committee leaders and Republicans raising some demands on the Speaker. More of this internal politics will emerge and potentially shift the agenda and the broader messaging around it for Republicans and Democrats.
Working with the Trump Administration: The incoming Trump administration will work hard to guide the Republican Congress in alignment with the White House’s agenda. In many cases, there will be clear alignment. In other cases, Republicans, especially those facing an election, will urge a different path; one that brings less political risk. The White House will also have to find a way to work with Democrats to get key policies over the finish line. It goes without saying- this will be a challenge for both Democrats in Congress and senior leaders in the administration.
This will certainly be an interesting two years. The 119th Congress will bring some level of uncertainty and internal frustration, but also a real opportunity to advance legislation with bipartisan support if managed correctly. External advocates will have to navigate this landscape delicately, especially as an aggressive legislative agenda from Congress and an aggressive deregulation agenda from the White House intersects with the 2026 election.